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Friday, March 31, 2017

Life expectancy goes into reverse. That's good for Government finances

The ONS has published data showing that the rise in life expectancy has stalled - maybe gone into reverse. To be honest, they don't really know, but something odd is happening with longevity forecasts.

You can read a summary of the data on the BBC web site. 

I have never been convinced by the optimistic forecasts that we are all going to live longer and longer. My eyes tell me that many people are eating themselves to an early grave and that the funding for healthcare is never going to keep pace with the demand.

Add to that the risk of antibiotics becoming less effective and you have a nasty mix of reasons why all is not good.

Whilst the average age might decline, there will be an increasing difference between those in the top quintile of wealth and income and those at the bottom. This quote from the ONS says it all.

The inequality between the local areas with the highest and lowest newborn life expectancy has increased despite improvements across local areas over the last 2 decades. Even more reason for marketers to realise the ultra fragmentation that is occurring to consumer markets.

This is good news for government finances since it means it has less pension payments to pay. There is always a silver lining. Dick Stroud

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